rickshangle.com

…using my simple formula.

Let’s be clear: using this formula, you CANNOT LOSE.[1]

At 0730 EST on Saturday, February 18, 2006, there were about 15574900 songs to go in the billion song iTunes promotion.

According to the neat-o counter on the page, iTMS sells about 5 pieces of media per second.[2]

Based on that logic, at a steady rate of song purchase, the billionth song should hit about 36 days from now.

Of course, as frenzy increases as the date approaches, undoubtedly fueled by Apple propaganda, this run rate is very likely to increase. Which means I need to dust off a calculus book, recompute based on some acceleration-based model, and provide a more accurate model.

Stay tuned here, reader, and BE ASSURED TO BUY THE ONE BILLIONTH ITUNES SONG (snort).

[1] It is entirely possible and indeed probable (an absolute certainty, actually) that you will in fact “lose” (i.e. not win anything) by using the concepts and formulae presented here.

[2] That 5 song-per-second number is based on the idea that the rate songs tick down on that page models the reality of song purchases in some way, which is hardly assured.

Void where prohibited.

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DATELINE: UPDATE - February 21 2006

Ok. Again, according to this spurious logic, we’re T-3M iTMS songs/video entities to go, and we’re at ~12 to 13 songs per second, which forces me to recompute to 2.7 days.

Repeat, 2.7 days.

In other words, 12 hours.

It’s the FINAL COUNTDOWN!

DATELINE: UPDATE - February 23 2006

The one billionth song was downloaded today, so my numbers were clearly correct, as expected. Alex Ostrovsky, you owe me. I’ll take two of the iPods…

Some people may ask: “Well, Rick, since your system was clearly so accurate, why didn’t you act on it to grab the winnings that you so clearly and richly deserve?”

The answer is simple - I’m not in it for the winnings. I’m the idea man, throwing out the knowledge, so that others may benefit. That’s how I roll.

rds